NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 10/21/21
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com or DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let’s jump in to take a look at today’s slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Sorokin ($8,100): The New York Islanders are -152 road favorites traveling to face the Columbus Blue Jackets, and we want to side with Sorokin in net. The Islanders got off to a rough start in their first two games, but Sorokin bounced back in a big way the other night with a whopping 39 saves. He picked up the win allowing just a single goal.
He should have a much easier path to victory tonight. The Blue Jackets are only holding a 50.18 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, the seventh-lowest league. That means Sorokin will likely end with fewer saves than he had the other night, but the win equity is even stronger for him versus the Blue Jackets.
Kyle Connor ($7,300): With Mark Scheifele in the COVID protocol for the Winnipeg Jets, we should see Kyle Connor step up his offensive production. Scheifele is normally the center on the top forward line and the top power-play unit for the Jets, with Connor playing on his wing. With Scheifele set to be out tonight, Connor should have a few more shot opportunities coming his way. He didn’t really need more; he is already tied for the team lead with 11 shots through their first three games.
He is going up against the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim is allowing a 68.61 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-worst in the league. We want to continuously attack the Ducks’ defense, showing they are a soft matchup for any opposing team. When adding in the extra opportunities for Connor, he is looking like one of the best plays on the slate.
Elias Pettersson ($7,200): The Chicago Blackhawks are bad on defense. There’s really no other way to put it. They are allowing 4.69 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations to start the season, which is dead last in the league. Their defense is a mess, and it’s looking like they are a team we will be targeting all season, so jump on board now.
We can then turn to Pettersson, who skates on the top line and the top power-play unit for the Vancouver Canucks. Vancouver enters as slight +122 road underdogs. Pettersson has piled up 15 shots on goal and a pair of NHL points through the first four games of the season, and those numbers should only increase with this soft matchup tonight.
Andrew Mangiapane ($3,900): The Calgary Flames have a 2.87 implied goal total tonight, and that might be too low against the Detroit Red Wings. The Red Wings are allowing the seventh-worst (60.43) Corsi Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations but are only allowing 1.44 goals per 60 minutes. They are due for some negative regression in the goals allowed category due to the volume of shots they are allowing. Over a longer sample, a team simply cannot allow that many shots and give up so few goals. We want to use Flames expecting that, and Mangiapane, who is on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, has good offensive upside in this soft matchup.
Jonathan Dahlen ($3,000): Dahlen should be screaming value tonight. He is the absolute minimum salary while skating on the top forward line and the top power-play unit for the San Jose Sharks. They are on the road and carry a 3.00 implied goal total against a weak Ottawa Senators‘ defense. With plenty of quality ice time in front of him, this is the easiest value play of the night.